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Отчет DSB 13.10.15: MH17 Crash Appendix X - NLR Report

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https://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/en/page/3 … -july-2014
https://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/en/media/ … ix_nlr.pdf

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Investigation of the impact damage
due to high-energy objects on the
wreckage of flight MH17

C u s t o m e r
Dutch Safety Board
NLR-CR-2015-155-PT-1 - September 2015
https://c.radikal.ru/c15/1907/31/9be4ce040222.png
NLR – Dedicated to innovation in aerospace
Source cover picture: ANP
N a t i o n a l A e r o s p a c e L a b o r a t o r y N L R
A n t h o n y F o k k e r w e g 2
1 0 5 9 C M A m s t e r d a m
T h e N e t h e r l a n d s
T e l + 3 1 ( 0 ) 8 8 5 1 1 3 1 1 3
w w w . n l r . n l

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UNCLASSIFIED
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Investigation of the impact damage
due to high-energy objects on the
wreckage of flight MH17

Problem area
The Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR) was asked by the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) to participate in the investigation of the impact damage due to highenergy objects on the wreckage of flight MH17. This investigation was performed by the Defence Systems Department of the NLR.
Description of work
The impact damage due to high-energy objects on the wreckage of flight MH17 was investigated. To investigate the possible cause of this damage, three scenarios using different classes of weapon systems in use in the region were analysed.
Results and conclusions
Damage examination

Based upon the damage examination it is concluded that the impact damage on the wreckage of flight MH17 is caused by a warhead with various types of preformed fragments in the 6-14 mm size range, including one type with a bowtie shape, detonating to the left of, and above, the cockpit.
Scenario 1: Air-to-Air Gun
The damage observed on the wreckage is not consistent with the damage caused by an air-to-air gun in number of hits, density of hits, direction of trajectories and type of damage. The high-energy object damage on the wreckage of flight MH17 is therefore not caused by an air-to-air gun .

Report no. NLR-CR-2015-155-PT-1 Author(s) J. Markerink Report classification UNCLASSIFIED Date September 2015 Knowledge area(s) Safety & Security Weapon Systems Descriptor(s) MH17 crash investigation Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777

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Investigation of the impact damage due to high-energy objects on the
wreckage of flight MH17
Scenario 2: Air-to-Air Missile
The damage observed on the wreckage is not
consistent with the damage caused by the warhead of
an air-to-air missile in use in the region in amount of
damage, type of damage and type of fragments. The
high-energy object damage on the wreckage of flight
MH17 is therefore not caused by an air-to-air missile.
Scenario 3: Surface-to-Air Missile
Of the investigated warheads only the 9N314M
contains the unique bowtie shaped fragments found in
the wreckage. The damage observed on the wreckage
in amount of damage, type of damage, boundary and
impact angles of damage, number and density of hits,
size of penetrations and bowtie fragments found in the
wreckage, is consistent with the damage caused by the
9N314M warhead used in the 9M38 and 9M38M1 BUK
surface-to-air missile.
Conclusion
Based on the results of the investigation it is concluded
that the high-energy object damage observed on the
wreckage of flight MH17 is caused by the 9N314M
warhead used in the 9M38 and 9M38M1 BUK surfaceto-air missile


National Aerospace Laboratory NLR
Anthony Fokkerweg 2, 1059 CM Amsterdam,
P.O. Box 90502, 1006 BM Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Telephone +31 (0)88 511 31 13, Fax +31 (0)88 511 32 10, Website: nlr.nl

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Investigation of the impact damage
due to high-energy objects on the
wreckage of flight MH17

J. Markerink


C u s t o m e r
Dutch Safety Board
September 2015

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Investigation of the impact damage due to high-energy objects on the wreckage of flight MH17


No part of this report may be reproduced and/or disclosed, in any form or by any means without the prior
written permission of the owner.
Customer Dutch Safety Board
Owner Dutch Safety Board
Division NLR Air Transport
Distribution Unlimited
Classification of title Unclassified
Date September 2015

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Content
Abbreviations                                        5
1 Introduction                                       7
2 Damage examination                          8
2.1 Types of observed impact damage     9
2.2 Pitting                                           11
2.3 Origin                                            12
2.4 Exit Damage                                  13
2.5 Number and density of hits             14
2.6 Size of penetration damage             14
2.7 Regularity of hits                            16
2.8 Location of damage                        17
2.9 Boundary of damage                      18
2.10 Direction of impact                       22
2.11 Other impact damage                   25
2.12 Fragments found                          28
2.13 Damage examination conclusion    29
3 Possible scenarios                             30
3.1 Focus of investigation                     30
3.2 Proliferation                                   30
3.3 Specific scenarios                           31
4 Scenario 1: Air-to-Air Gun                 32
4.1 Su-25 (Frogfoot)                            32
4.2 Su-25 Performance                        32
4.3 Air-to-Air Guns overview                 33
4.4 Gsh-30                                          34
4.5 Gsh-301                                        35
4.6 Gsh-6-23                                       35
4.7 Attack geometry                             35
4.8 Visual identification                         36
4.9 Number of bullets                           36
4.10 Density                                        36
4.11 Direction                                      36
4.12 Type of damage                            36

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Investigation of the impact damage due to high-energy objects on the wreckage of flight MH17

4.13 Air-to-Air Gun scenario conclusion                                  38
5 Scenario 2: Air-to-Air Missile                                               39
5.1 R-60                                                                              39
5.2 Attack geometry                                                             39
5.3 Visual identification                                                         39
5.4 Amount of damage                                                          40
5.5 Type of damage                                                              40
5.6 Used materials                                                                42
5.7 R-60 Air-to-Air Missile scenario conclusion                         42
5.8 Air-to-Air Missile overview                                                42
5.9 Air-to-Air Missile scenario conclusion                                 43
6 Scenario 3: Surface-to-Air Missile                                        44
6.1 Surface-to-Air Missile overview                                         44
6.2 BUK Surface-to-Air Missile system                                    44
6.3 BUK TELAR                                                                     44
6.4 Normal operation                                                            45
6.5 Autonomous operation                                                    46
6.6 BUK missile                                                                    46
6.7 Altitude capability                                                           47
6.8 Proximity fuse                                                                47
6.9 Amount of damage                                                         47
6.10 Type of damage                                                            47
6.11 Bowtie fragments                                                         49
6.12 Number and density of hits                                           50
6.13 Fragment dimensions                                                    52
6.14 Static warhead model                                                   52
6.15 Dynamic fragmentation pattern                                     54
6.16 Primary and secondary fragmentation pattern                 55
6.17 Matching modelled and observed fragmentation damage  55
6.18 Kinematic Fragment Spray Pattern Simulation                 58
6.19 Missile flyout simulation                                                60
6.20 Missile Launch Area                                                      60
6.21 Surface-to-Air Missile scenario conclusion                       62
7 Summary of findings                                                         63
8 References                                                                       66

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Abbreviations


Acronym Description


CAS            Close Air Support
CP              Command Post
DSB            Dutch Safety Board
FDR            Flight Data Recorder
NATO          North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NLR            National Aerospace Laboratory NLR
SAM            Surface-to-Air Missile
TAR            Target Acquisition Radar
TAS            True Airspeed
TELAR        Transporter Erector Launcher and Radar
TELL           Transporter Erector Launcher and Loader
WEST         Weapon Engagement Simulation Tool
WVR           Within Visual Range

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1 Introduction
The Dutch Safety Board (DSB) investigates the crash of the Boeing 777-200,
Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, on 17 July 2014 in the east of Ukraine. The
purpose of this investigation is to establish the causes of the crash and in
particular, the cause of the damage to the forward fuselage of the aircraft. In the
preliminary report the Dutch Safety Board states that the damage to the forward
part of the fuselage appears to indicate that there were impacts from a large
number of high-energy objects from outside the aircraft [2.].
The Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR) was asked by the Dutch Safety
Board to participate in the investigation of the impact damage due to highenergy objects on the wreckage of flight MH17. This investigation was performed
by the Defence Systems Department of the NLR. This department provides
operational, technical and scientific support to the Dutch Ministry of Defence in
general, and the Royal Netherlands Air Force in particular. The main research
subject is airborne self-protection, which requires an extensive knowledge of the
performance of surface-to-air and air-to-air weapon systems. For this purpose
the department has several tools at its disposal. One of these is WEST (Weapon
Engagement Simulation Tool); an in-house developed software tool to simulate
the flyout and performance of threat systems. A number of WEST models are
used in this investigation.
The work was performed as follows: First, the damage on the wreckage was
thoroughly examined and quantified. Once the physical evidence was
investigated, the known characteristics of all relevant air-to-air guns, air-to-air
missiles, and surface-to-air missiles were systematically evaluated for possible
consistency with the damage observed on the wreckage. Of the evaluated
weapon systems, only one was found to be consistent with the observed
damage. For this weapon system the detonation location, orientation and
weapon trajectory were analysed in further detail.
The structure of this report is as follows: Chapter 2 provides details of the aircraft
damage examination. The three scenarios, using different classes of weapon
systems in use in the region, are specified in Chapter 3. Chapters 4 through 6
elaborate on the analysis of each scenario, discussing in particular consistency
with the observed damage. Chapter 7 provides a summary of the findings and
conclusions

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2 Damage examination
At the time the investigation commenced, around 25% of the wreckage was
available to the Dutch Safety Board at Gilze-Rijen Air Force Base in The
Netherlands (Figure 1 and Figure 2). The parts of interest to the investigation
were located in one hangar. The remaining parts were located in two separate
aircraft shelters. Of each part of the wreckage photographs were taken and
these were made available for the investigation. Also a number of 3D laser scans
of parts of the wreckage were made and used in this investigation.

https://c.radikal.ru/c29/1907/51/afeee5038532.png
Figure 1: Left-hand side recovered wreckage (Source: DSB)

https://b.radikal.ru/b35/1907/4c/a328024589e1.png
Figure 2: Right-hand side recovered wreckage (Source: DSB)

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2.1 Types of observed impact damage
The impact damage due to the high-energy objects was investigated on the
wreckage of the cockpit.
Four types of impact damage [1] were identified:
1. Piercing damage. In piercing damage the high-energy object penetrates
the plate by pushing the plate material aside. The high-energy object
tears through the plate during penetration, and a crown-shaped
protrusion surrounded by radial cracks is formed on the exit side of the
plate.
2. Plugging damage. In plugging damage the high-energy object impacting
the plate produces a relatively clean hole by shearing out a portion of the
plate known as a plug.
3. Non-penetrating damage. Where relatively strong, thick and reinforced
parts of the airframe structure were present; a number of high-energy
objects did not have enough energy to fully penetrate the structure and
produced non-penetrating damage.
4. Ricochet damage. When the angle of impact on a plate is shallow, the
object will not be able to fully penetrate the structure and ricochets of
the plate leaving non-penetrating ricochet damage.
Figure 3 through Figure 6 show examples of the different types of damage on the
wreckage of flight MH17.
The impact damage found on the wreckage indicates that the aircraft was hit by
a large number of high-energy objects of various shapes and sizes.

https://b.radikal.ru/b10/1907/66/99385717bea8.png
Figure 3: Piercing damage (Source: DSB)

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https://b.radikal.ru/b29/1907/82/c1bc9c55e04e.png
Figure 4: Plugging damage (Source: DSB)

https://b.radikal.ru/b10/1907/4f/c84acab7161f.png
Figure 5: Non-penetrating damage

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https://c.radikal.ru/c29/1907/01/df64ed9dd3f2.png
Figure 6: Ricochet damage (Source: DSB)

2.2 Pitting
Besides the direct impact damage of high-energy objects found on the aircraft,
pitting was also observed on some parts of the wreckage of the cockpit [3].
Pitting is a phenomenon that occurs on metal surfaces that are in proximity to
detonating explosives and indicates the occurrence of an explosive event nearby
(Figure 7).

https://d.radikal.ru/d09/1907/8d/aa60a9e0abbc.png
Figure 7: Pitting (Source: DSB)

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2.3 Origin
The observed impact damage by high-energy objects originates from outside the
aircraft. Both piercing and plugging damage observed are identified as entry
damage bending the plate material inwards (Figure 8). The non-penetrating
damage as well as the ricochet damage also clearly originates from outside the
aircraft.

https://a.radikal.ru/a38/1907/1d/427bb0e97fdd.png
Figure 8: Plate material bent inwards. Looking at the inside of the structure

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At certain parts of the structure, where multiple layers of plate material are
riveted together, some high-energy objects impacted the structure at a shallow
angle, penetrating the first outer plate but ricocheting back from the second
plate and exiting through the outer plate. This creates the outer layer
penetration damage as seen in Figure 9.

https://b.radikal.ru/b41/1907/0f/a362de9246f8.png
Figure 9: Outer layer penetration

2.4 Exit Damage
Exit damage is observed on the wreckage of the lower right-hand side of the
cockpit (Figure 10). This is an indication of a direction of impact from the upper
left-hand side of the cockpit towards the lower right-hand side of the cockpit.

https://d.radikal.ru/d28/1907/01/3c6bae0af83c.png
Figure 10: Exit damage on lower right-hand side of the cockpit

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2.5 Number and density of hits
The total number of hits of all types of impact damage on the initially available
wreckage was counted and found to be 304. After this, additional parts of the
wreckage became available. Accounting for the additional hits on these parts the
total number of impacts is assessed to be more than 350. Extrapolating the
number of hits on the affected area of the fuselage and accounting for the
structure that was not available gives an estimate of the total number of hits of
high-energy objects of over 800. The highest density of hits was on the middle
window on the captain’s left-hand side of the cockpit (window number 2). The
cockpit windows are made of multiple layers of glass and plastic and one of the
layers of this window was recovered. See Figure 11 for this window layer and its
location in the cockpit. The density in this area is calculated to be around 250 hits
per square meter.

https://d.radikal.ru/d17/1907/78/808e93599dd9.png
Figure 11: Left cockpit window 2 layer and location (Source: DSB)

2.6 Size of penetration damage
On the piece of cockpit skin with the highest number of penetrations, the size of
the holes caused by these penetrations was measured (Figure 12). Only the
damage that was assessed to be the result of single objects fully penetrating the
plate was taken into account. Of each hole the dimension perpendicular to the
impact direction was measured (Figure 13). Only this dimension gives an
indication of the size of the object that caused the damage. The larger
dimension, parallel to the projection of the impact direction on the plate, is the
result of the speed and the angle at which the object impacts the plate. As can
be seen in Figure 14, the size was found to range from 6 mm to 14 mm.

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https://b.radikal.ru/b20/1907/a1/4940954e9d5c.png
Figure 12: Piece of wreckage used for size of penetration measurement

https://c.radikal.ru/c32/1907/c7/9126c288109a.png
Figure 13: Measurement of penetration damage

https://a.radikal.ru/a25/1907/57/36f5079a4cf5.png
Figure 14: Size of penetration damage

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2.7 Regularity of hits

On several parts of the wreckage a regularity of hits was observed. Figure 15 and
Figure 16 are examples of hits at regular intervals. This regularity of hits is an
indication that the damage was caused by a warhead with preformed, separate
fragments. See section 6.10 for a more in depth discussion of this subject.

https://a.radikal.ru/a35/1907/ad/218f70e1c9ae.png
Figure 15: Regularity of hits on upper cockpit window frame

https://a.radikal.ru/a10/1907/59/b21d4f2297dd.png
Figure 16: Regularity of hits on lower cockpit window frame

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2.8 Location of damage
The main location of the impact damage of high-energy objects is on the lefthand and upper side of the cockpit. The right-hand side of the cockpit shows no
high-energy object impact damage. In particular the two co-pilot’s windows on
the right-hand side show no penetration damage as can be seen in Figure 17.

https://b.radikal.ru/b12/1907/50/dcd465fb1a46.png
Figure 17: Right-hand side of cockpit

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2.9 Boundary of damage
There is a relatively clear boundary between parts of the wreckage that are
affected by the high-energy object impacts and parts that are unaffected. On the
front side of the cockpit, the boundary is the forward corner of the captain’s
(left-hand side) front window. Figure 18 shows this corner, together with the two
windscreen wipers. The most forward impact damage occurs just above and aft
(to the rear) of this corner as can be seen by the penetration damage in the
glass.

https://b.radikal.ru/b30/1907/9a/65ea82303a70.png
Figure 18: Forward corner of left-hand side cockpit front window (Source: DSB)

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On the top and right-hand side of the cockpit the damage boundary is indicated
by the ricochet impacts on the cockpit roof as shown in Figure 19. To the right
(starboard side) of this area no impact damage is present.

https://c.radikal.ru/c12/1907/04/2b9ba6f88bd7.png
Figure 19: Right-hand side cockpit roof (looking nose to tail)

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The rearmost impact damage boundary is found on the left-hand side in front of
the left-hand forward passenger door. Figure 20 through Figure 22 show the
most rearward high-energy object ricochets.

https://b.radikal.ru/b08/1907/86/e828c6f6b0ae.png
Figure 20: Left-hand side panel location (Source: DSB)

https://c.radikal.ru/c18/1907/a0/ae732318ad5c.png
Figure 21: Left-hand side panel with ricochet damage

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https://a.radikal.ru/a24/1907/26/ed32c971d189.png

Figure 22: Detail of left-hand side panel ricochet damage

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2.10 Direction of impact To determine the high-energy objects trajectory, the direction of the impact damage was analysed on several parts of the cockpit area. Using fibreglass rods and 3D-scans of the structure, the direction of high-energy objects penetrating multiple layers of material was determined. The results of this analysis can be found in Figure 23 and Figure 24. Also the forensic technique of stringing was used to analyse the general direction of the impact damage on the actual wreckage as can be seen in Figure 25. The back traced trajectories of the penetrating damage converge to a general area to the left of, and above, the cockpit.

https://d.radikal.ru/d36/1907/52/8e43abc21303.png
Figure 23: High-energy objects impact direction

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https://d.radikal.ru/d36/1907/b2/df56a76db1e2.png
Figure 24: High-energy objects impact direction origin in 3D-scan

https://c.radikal.ru/c03/1907/24/3a636a0eeb0b.png
Figure 25: Stringing of high-energy objects impacts to determine general location of origin (Source: DSB)

For the non-penetrating ricochet and grazing hits the angle relative to the structure was measured to give a direction in the plane of the aircraft skin. This was done for the cockpit roof (Figure 26) and the left-hand side of the cockpit.

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https://c.radikal.ru/c41/1907/43/a6f90c0b2db6.png
Figure 26: Rulers showing local direction of ricochet damage on cockpit roof

Because a piece of cockpit roof was not yet available to the Dutch Safety Board at the time of writing, the angle of ricochet damage on this piece was determined using photographs. This piece was located on the top of the cockpit, more to the rear of the aircraft. Figure 27 shows a detail of this cockpit roof. The flight direction is indicated with a blue arrow and the ricochet damage direction with a red arrow.

https://c.radikal.ru/c22/1907/97/9dc6c28d36ae.png
Figure 27: Direction of ricochet damage (red) on cockpit roof. Blue arrow indicates flight direction (Source:
DSB)

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Based on the analysis of the direction of both the penetrating and the nonpenetrating high-energy object damage, all objects appear to originate from a
general area to the left of, and above, the cockpit.
2.11 Other impact damage
Besides the main high-energy object impact damage on the cockpit there are two
further areas where impact damage is observed: the left engine cowling ring and
the left wingtip. The left engine cowling ring is a hollow structure consisting of an
aerodynamically shaped curved front and a flat plate rear. A number of objects
have penetrated both parts of this structure from the front to the rear and from
this a trajectory direction can be derived. In Figure 28 and Figure 29 the front
and rear plate penetrations caused by the same object has been indicated. In
Figure 29 it is possible to look through both holes to obtain the direction of the
line of sight through these holes. The engine cowling ring has been placed at the
correct location with respect to the cockpit, of which the back side of the front
bulkhead is visible on the right side of Figure 29. The observed penetrations
show a general object trajectory direction originating from an area to the left of,
and above, the cockpit. The size of the damage caused by objects that
penetrated both front and rear plate is significantly larger than the impact
damage found on the wreckage of the cockpit. The size of all penetrations of the
front of the ring was measured and found to range from 1 to 200 mm. Only 5 of
the 47 penetrations were in the same 6-14 mm size range as the ones found on
the cockpit panel of Figure 14. None of the objects that caused these 5
penetrations also penetrated the back plate

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https://c.radikal.ru/c42/1907/e8/1976eb28c62f.png

Figure 28: Impact damage on front side engine cowling ring

https://d.radikal.ru/d12/1907/78/f4a39ca51559.png

Figure 29: Impact damage on rear side engine cowling ring


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